Former Blackrock asset manager and prominent data analyst Ed Dowd recently brought forth worrying data on the Dr. Drew show. Death rates among children in the UK are climbing — and fast.
According to yearly excess death data, available at phinancetechnologies.com, the years 2020 and 2021 had negative excess mortality rates, at -9% and -7%, respectively. This means that the death rate among children in that age group was less than anticipated for those years.
These rates dramatically shifted to 16% more deaths than anticipated in 2022 and a projected 22% more deaths than anticipated in 2023. Dowd blamed this rise in mortality on the COVID-19 vaccine rollout for this age group, which commenced in September 2021 for 12 to 15-year-olds and April 2022 for 5 to 11-year-olds.
Unpacking the 0.94 Correlation Coefficient
In statistics, the correlation coefficient measures the strength and direction of the linear relationship between two variables. The value of a correlation coefficient ranges from -1 to 1, with 0 indicating no correlation, -1 indicating a perfect negative linear correlation, and 1 indicating a perfect positive linear correlation.
Alarmingly, Dowd found a correlation coefficient of 0.94 between the vaccine rollout and excess deaths among UK children. This suggests a very strong positive linear relationship between the two factors. So, as one variable increases (vaccine uptake), the other variable (excess deaths) also increases in a way that is closely approximated by a straight line.
But couldn’t the excess deaths be because of COVID-19 and not the vaccines?
One, children are at a very, very low risk of dying from COVID-19. So, any increase in COVID-19 deaths one year over the other would hardly make a dent in overall deaths among children.
Dowd also questioned why COVID-19 would be responsible for the increase in excess mortality among children only after the vaccines were introduced, and not before. He pointed out that if COVID-19 were the cause of increased excess mortality, we would have expected to see these elevated numbers in 2020 and 2021 as well.
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