After January's surprised upside shift, expectations have been adjusted up over the last month for another sizable MoM move in headline CPI. But that was not enough as the 0.4% MoM rise in the headline (as expected - highest since August) lifted CPI YoY up to +3.2% (hotter than the 3.1% exp)...
Source: Bloomberg
The 3-month annualized CPI rate was rose to 2.8% from 1.9%. The 6-month annualized core rate dropped to 3.2% from 3.3%.
Energy costs surged MoM as Core Services inflation slowed MoM...
Full CPI MoM breakdown:
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in February, as it did the previous month.
The shelter index increased 0.4 percent in February and was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy.
The index for rent rose 0.5 percent over the month, while the index for owners’ equivalent rent increased 0.4 percent.
The lodging away from home index increased 0.1 percent in February, after rising 1.8 percent in January.
The airline fares index rose 3.6 percent in February, following a 1.4-percent increase in January.
The index for motor vehicle insurance increased 0.9 percent over the month.
The medical care index was unchanged in February after rising 0.5 percent in January.
The index for hospital services decreased 0.6 percent over the month and the index for physicians’ services decreased 0.2 percent.
The prescription drugs index fell 0.1 percent in February.
The index for dental services was among those that rose in February, increasing 0.4 percent.
The index for personal care fell 0.5 percent in February, following a 0.6-percent increase in January.
The household furnishings and operations index fell 0.1 percent over the month, as did the new vehicles index.
Among other indexes that rose in February were apparel, recreation, and used cars and trucks.
Full CPI YoY breakdown:
The index for all items less food and energy rose 3.8 percent over the past 12 months.
The shelter index increased 5.7 percent over the last year, accounting for roughly two thirds of the total 12-month increase in the core CPI index
Feb Shelter inflation: 5.74% down from 6.04% in Jan
Feb rent inflation: 5.77%, down from 6.09% in Jan
Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include motor vehicle insurance (+20.6 percent), medical care (+1.4 percent), recreation (+2.1 percent), and personal care (+4.2 percent).
Core CPI rose 0.4% MoM (hotter than the +0.3% exp) and up 3.8% YoY (hotter than the +3.7% exp), but still the lowest since April 2021...
The 3-month annualized Core CPI rate was rose to 4.1% from 3.9%. The 6-month annualized core rate rose to 3.8% from 3.5%.
Core Goods actually rose MoM for the first time since June 2023...
Goods deflation continues (-0.3% YoY) but has flattened out, while services inflation remains stubbornly high at +5.2% YoY...
And one step deeper - the so-called SuperCore: Core CPI Services Ex-Shelter index - soared 0.5% MoM up to 4.5% YoY - the hottest since May 2023...
While SuperCore CPI slowed MoM, there was a large jump in Transportation Services MoM...
Finally, we note that consumer prices have not fallen in a single month since President Biden's term began (July 2022 was the closest with 'unchanged'), which leaves overall prices up 19% since Bidenomics was unleashed. And prices have never been more expensive...
Art of Liberty – 500 Club Call – Wednesday Night, March 13th @ 9:00 PM EST / 6:00 PM PST
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