By Fred Imbert, Sean Conlon, Chloe Taylor and Saudah Khaimiya, CNBC
Treasury yields were trading at multidecade highs on Thursday, as investor bets on another rate hike from the Federal Reserve mounted.
The 30-year Treasury bond yield was up 5 basis points 5.456% and reached a 2004 peak. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield, which is tied to rates on mortgages, rose more than 4 basis points to 5.162% and hit its highest level since July 2007. The yield on the 2-year note gained more than 1 basis point to 4.908% and remained close to a 2023 high.
One basis point equals 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.
Global bonds also sold off. Japan’s 10-year JGB yield rose its highest since August 1996. U.K. Gilts and German Bunds also moved higher, with yields on various European bonds hitting fresh multi-year highs.
Thursday’s moves build on a U.S. Treasury rout that took place Wednesday. The 10-year Treasury yield had its biggest one-day jump since April 7, 2025 as traders reacted to stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, hawkish commentary from a Federal Reserve official and high oil prices.
“The combination of fiscal, economic, geopolitical, and supply-side inflation pressures converging has bond markets in less familiar territory. The recent rise in yields can no longer be attributed simply to concerns over the deficit,” said from Mike Sanders, head of fixed income at Madison Investments.
The data drove expectations of more rate hikes, with traders last pricing in a more-than-75 % chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will increase rates again at its October meeting, per the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. That compares to a roughly 49% probability just a week ago.
“With markets pricing in four rate hikes through next year, the Fed is being pushed toward tighter policy at a time when the risk of a policy mistake is rising,” he added.
Michael Barr, a member of the Fed’s Board of Governors, said in a speech on Wednesday that “further policy adjustments” are likely to come to bring inflation down to target. Speaking in London on Thursday, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said it would be “reasonable” to expect another Fed interest rate hike by the end of the year.
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