Simplicius: Panic in Kiev as AFU’s Starlink “Mysteriously” Throttled One Day After Intelligence Blackout

By Simplicius

A day after Zelensky accused the US of cutting “intelligence support” and not providing early warning against Russia’s ballistic missile strikes on Kiev, pandemonium has ensued in Ukraine.

Now the country’s leadership has accused the US of cutting its Starlink support as well.

It all began with a post by prominent Ukrainian figure Serhii Sternenko who detailed how Starlink terminals in Ukraine were throttled when they passed a certain speed restriction:

As can be seen, he accuses Elon Musk’s SpaceX of meddling, which began a firestorm of hate directed toward Musk from the Ukrainian-aligned side of social media.

Musk immediately responded with a clarification: the military version of Starlink is infact operated by the US DOD under the name Starshield and is not controlled by Musk or SpaceX. You can see him responding directly to the star ex-Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov himself—note that Fedorov claims connectivity was already being restored at the time:

Musk was forced to divest himself of this arm of his company early in the war in order to continue presenting a “neutral” face for his enterprise and not have it messily linked to offensive military actions which he likely knew would be pushed into very ethically “gray” areas of striking Russian civilian and dual-use infrastructure.

Despite all that however, we must admit the timing is a tad suspicious given that Musk had some very strong words about Zelensky only days ago:

First, it should be mentioned that despite Fedorov’s claims of restoration, there were other counter-claims that his announcement was premature and service was in fact still widely failing.

Several Ukrainian brigades had also posted of their issues. Here the 7th Airborne Assault Corps of the AFU:

The Ukrainian 7th Rapid Response Corps of the Air Assault Forces reports that Starlink disruptions are occurring in the Hulyaipole/Orikhiv direction, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, this morning.

The so-called Starshield package, which conducts data transferring for drone flights, has received limitations on speeds of 110-120+ km/h, where the connection can be lost for 10-20 seconds making it difficult to control the drones. Additionally, the launch of high-speed mid-range drones has become almost impossible.

Already, since this morning, some missions of the 7th Corps have had to be cancelled due to these Starlink restrictions and communications problems.

Ukraine’s most authoritative figure on these topics, Serhiy Flash, also confirmed that Starlink restrictions had come into force:

On his TG channel he went into further detail:

Everyone is writing about how the “Starlink” restrictions have impacted long-range missions and frontline logistics, but there’s another major problem for us.

“Starlink” is being used in the most effective current solution (interceptors) for protecting our airspace from jet-powered “Shahed” drones.

In fact, with their actions, our partners are depriving us of one of the few chances we have to defend the country from these jet-powered “Shaheds.”

He points out an important and under-appreciated part of the saga: that Starlink is used not just offensively by Ukrainian long-range drones but also defensively in interceptors that target Russia’s own strike assets which have been hitting Kiev. As such, Russia’s recent crippling strikes on Kiev’s facilities now stand to become even worse if these disruptions continue.

In light of the above, today WaPo dropped the bombshell that the US has in fact been threatening key Ukrainian personnel with an intelligence cut-off should Zelensky continue to hit Russian oil sites:

From the piece:

The U.S. threatened to withhold intelligence from Ukraine on Monday, according to a person familiar with the matter.

U.S. intelligence officials warned the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington that if there are more strikes on Russian energy sites, the U.S. would immediately halt all intelligence sharing. U.S. intelligence has not been cut off, at least not in full, but the threat remains, the person said.

“The warnings were so widespread that anyone with a Ukrainian-sounding last name got a call,” the person said. The type of missile that hit Kyiv has evaded alert systems previously, but not recently, the person said.

There are several interesting points in the above quote.

Firstly, that if the US did begin warning to cut off intelligence, we can safely assume the last few days of alarm were justified, and that Trump was likely trial-ballooning a temporary cut-off to send a message. The quote even hedges by saying US intelligence has not been cut off “in full” yet.

The other interesting bit was the last part, again implying that Russia has been using some “type of missile” which had previously evaded even US’s own early warning alert system, but “not recently”. We can only assume this refers to the S-400 ballistic variants we spoke of in the last update, which it is implied the US has now adapted to.

CBS also spoke with “multiple sources familiar with the matter” who told the outlet the US likely did intentionally withhold early warnings:

The U.S. may have intentionally withheld early warnings this week of Russian strikes on Ukraine, multiple sources familiar with the matter told CBS News.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine “received no advance warning from our partners” when Russia launched a ballistic missile barrage at Kyiv and other locations early Tuesday.

The article shares another interesting nugget:

The sources said the U.S. had failed to provide intelligence on Russian ballistic missile launches during one previous instance earlier this year, citing the need to focus more resources on the Middle East.

This shows the US has been juggling its finite space resources between the various theaters of conflict it has provoked and is trying to simultaneously manage.

There continue to be various Ukrainian claims that Starlink has not been fully restored as claimed by Fedorov and others:

Strangely, while this was going on a “secret” Starlink ground station in Bulgaria which provided services to the AFU was allegedly torched:

Bulgarian MP Ivaylo Mirchev provided details:

No matter what really happened with the early warning and Starlink fiasco, the fact remains that the US appears to have sent Ukraine a final ultimatum that intelligence will be completely cut off if Ukraine continues to hit Russian energy, at least according to the earlier reports.

Ukraine has already been hitting Russian energy since last night, and vows to continue doing so. This can only mean we can expect a major clash between the two former “partners” in the near future, though many predict Trump will simply TACO out as per usual. In fact, the restoration of Starlink service can already be considered a backtrack, but we’ll see how the situation actually unfolds.

In the meantime, Russia has been devastating Kiev, with another massive strike reportedly being planned for the coming days or sooner.

Last night a record 6 sites related to energy infrastructure were hit around Kiev and Kharkov:

During last night's large-scale Russian missile attack on Ukraine, at least six different major energy facilities were struck with ballistic and cruise missiles.

These include:

- The CHP-5 Combined Heat and Power Plant in southern Kyiv.

- The CHP-4 Combined Heat and Power Plant in eastern Kyiv.

- The Trypillya Thermal Power Plant in Ukrainka, Kyiv Oblast.

- The TEC-5 Thermal Power Plant in Pisochyn, Kharkiv Oblast.

- The Zmiivska Thermal Power Plant in Slobozhanske, Kharkiv Oblast.

- The "Kyivska" 750 kV electrical substation in Nalyvaikivka, Kyiv Oblast.

Major attacks on Ukrainian railway facilities likewise continued, as reported by the CEO of Ukrzaliznytsia, which is the Ukrainian state railway authority:

Now it appears Ukraine has been thrust between rock and hard place: respond to Russia’s devastating strike campaign in the only symmetrically effective way, but then risk getting cut off from intel-sharing; or roll over to appease Trump in buoying the economy on the eve of midterms while becoming defenseless against growing Russian strikes in precisely the season when Russia aims to maximize carnage against Ukrainian infrastructure.

It appears for Ukraine there are no easy choices ahead. But the chances are quite strong for Trump to back down as per usual after “urgent pleas” from both insiders and partners. Despite his many performative gestures to the contrary, Trump remains eminently impressionable when it comes to being talked down from initiatives that go against deep state plans.

How long do you reckon the latest act lasts?

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