Simplicius: Zelensky Claims US Intel Cut Off as "Undetectable" Russian Missiles Bombard Kiev

By Simplicius

Last night Russia struck Kiev with a series of what is claimed to be ballistic missiles. Routine though it may seem, what was not routine about the attack was Ukraine’s reported lack of the usual forewarning by allies.

Zelensky himself expressed disappointment that no intelligence was provided:

It has now been established that Ukraine receives all missile launch warnings from the US, presumably by way of space-based infrared system (SBIRS) early warning satellites that can detect ballistic launches from known launch areas, or long range OTH radars like the AN/FPS-132 in Fylingdale, UK—though this is primarily for tracking once a missile is already in the air, rather than boost phase detection.

There’s a few points to be made on this.

Firstly, FM Sybiha did confirm that allies are allegedly still sharing intel, but was curiously circumspect in saying that the reason behind last night’s lack of warning was a “special” type of weaponry that Russia used:

Trump likewise appeared to confirm that the US is still providing intel to Ukraine:

So, what did Sybiha mean by “special weaponry”?

Some reports stated that Russia used specially modified S-400 launchers in the attack, which would explain the more “special” munition type. Ukraine just recently claimed to have destroyed an S-400 system just over the border in Bryansk region of Russia which was being utilized as a converted ballistic launch platform:

Fire Point said the launcher had been modified by Russian forces to strike ground targets and had previously been used against Kyiv. The company said the strike hit the launcher near the village of Poroshino, along highway 15K-303. The open-source monitoring group CyberBoroshno said it geolocated the destroyed vehicle from photos of the wreckage, pinning the site at coordinates 53.134224, 33.944510.

Let us also quickly address the elephant in the room: many people still do not believe Russia is using S-400s in such a fashion, and that this is phony Ukrainian propaganda. But it makes perfectly logical sense for Russia to convert excess S-400s into ballistic launchers, which should be telling: it would mean Russia has more launchers than it knows what to do with, which flies in the face of perennial Ukrainian claims that Russia is running short on air defenses.

Keep in mind that the new Ukrainian FP-7 ballistic missile is believed by many experts to essentially be an S-300 missile reworked into a ballistic variant. Below you can see the FP-7 on the far left, with the 48N6 (which is very similar to 5V55 and other varieties) of the S-300 family on the right:

In the art of war, the smartest and most efficient thing you can possibly do as a weapons designer is create dual-use weaponry which can be adapted for multiple purposes.

But here’s where things get interesting.

Whether or not Russia is using S-400s or some other “special system”, the lack of intel forewarning can mean only one of three things, all of them damning for Ukraine:

1. That Russian S-400s launched in ballistic mode are not detectable by the most advanced US space assets, which is precisely what Andriy Sybiha appears to imply in the earlier video.

2. US Patriot installations inside Kiev are incapable of detecting these missiles with their radars.

3. Russia is using some kind of new weapon that is not detectable to any of the above US systems.

Or perhaps if Sybiha is lying, and the US did in fact withhold intelligence, it would still be intriguing given that we know US Patriot systems protect Kiev. Who operates these Patriots, Ukrainians or Americans? If Americans, that would mean they may have detected objects flying to Kiev but were ordered to stand down and not provide radar forewarning to the Ukrainians, if they even detected them at all. Or if it’s the Ukrainians, then surely they simply would not have detected the missiles, which means the highly “advanced” Patriot radar is incapable of detecting whatever it is that Russia has been sending.

To speculate on the most likely and least “exotic” explanation we can assume Russia may have used these S-400s converted into ballistic variants, and they were simply undetectable because they likely do not fly even remotely the same ballistic path as an Iskander. Most likely, they utilize a more shallow arc that flies under most radar coverage, not to mention the missiles themselves are smaller and thinner, making them harder to pick up on radars.

Space-based infrared systems may also have missed them because either their launch plume is too small compared to true ballistics, or the system mistook them for real air defense firing defensively at incoming objects, rather than launching an offensive volley. This could particularly be the case if the SBIRS system utilizes AI to automatically catalogue targets: If the AI was trained on spotting S-400s as air defense launchers, it may have ignored them in their more rarely used offensive form.

For the record, Politico claims that no warning came because of “bad weather”—a seemingly phony excuse given that now several such “no-warning” attacks have occurred, as seen below:

“They [Americans] told Ukrainians no warning happened because of bad weather conditions, which is seen as not an adequate reason in Kyiv. Thus many are getting increasingly worried this might not have been the case,” an official familiar with the matter told POLITICO on condition of anonymity.

The missile warning system has malfunctioned before. “At times this information doesn’t get through. This isn’t the first instance … If there were specific technical issues this time, I think the specialists will sort it out. And they will resolve this problem together with our partners,” Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ignat said Tuesday.

As of this writing, another “phantom attack” just occurred on Kiev, with warning sirens again reportedly happening only after the missiles had struck:

Zelensky complains that again there was no early warning from “partners”:

https://www.politico.eu/article/no-warning-for-russian-missile-strike-kyiv-zelenskyy/

He writes:

Our systems detected these missiles only when they were already virtually on approach to Kyiv. CHPP-4 is one of Kyiv’s key energy facilities.

According to our intelligence, the Russians are preparing further ballistic missile launches. The facts show that the Russians do not consider themselves bound by what the President of the United States said. Ukraine supported an energy ceasefire. Russia is targeting yet another power plant and the lives of our people.

And this is absolutely unjust: when they are destroying our energy infrastructure, and Ukraine is not even receiving early warnings about ballistic missile launches. It is important that the world does not stay silent about this. And it is important that the United States really see what is happening and who is responsible for this war continuing.

Please stay safe tonight and tomorrow. We are working to replenish our air defenses with anti-ballistic missiles.

So, what do you think it is? Hard-to-detect ballistic variants of Russian S-400s, or Trump turning off the intel faucet, even if temporarily, to teach defiant Zelensky to obey?

Zelensky segues us to the next topic by bringing up the so-called energy ceasefire that Trump had claimed was launched between the two countries. For those who did not witness the usual circus, here’s a must-see rundown:

On October 11th, Trump announced a definitive energy ceasefire between the two warring countries:

The problem was, neither the Russian or Ukrainian side heard about this ceasefire, and both were confused when asked about it:

Axios reported that the ceasefire was likewise “news” to Zelensky, who had not heard of it:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tells Axios the announcement “was news for me. But if Russians agree to an energy ceasefire, Ukraine will agree.”

In short, Trump made up a ceasefire whole cloth presumably just to calm economic worries regarding fuel shortages—a truly mind-boggling act.

When called out on it, here’s what he had to say:

REPORTER: "You said Russia and Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire, but both sides say they have not agreed to that..."

TRUMP: "They agreed. You know why? Because I said, 'You agree' — that's why. They agreed because I said they agreed, and that thing has to get settled."

Unbelievable delusions of grandeur. It appears Trump told the two sides there was to be a ceasefire, and considered it a done deal simply owing to the power of his fiat.

Lavrov clarifies that Russia will not be falling for any further ceasefire scams:

After yesterday’s attack, Kiev was said to be in total blackout:

Russian strikes also destroyed a lubricants plant:

And this is what the Kiev TPP-5 thermal plant in Trypilska reportedly looks like after the previous round of strikes:

Here's what the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant looks like now. It is located in the village of Ukrainka, in the Kyiv region.

In fact, Google now lists the power plant as “permanently closed” on its official maps:

Now the Kharkiv TPP-5 has also sustained “critical damage” according to an administrative head:

Kharkiv TPP-5 Sustained Critical Damage as a Result of an Attack - Head of the Regional Military Administration

▪️Synegubov reported that the thermal power plant sustained critical damage.
▪️Earlier, Zelenskyy confirmed the attack on an energy facility in Kharkiv.

Tonight Ukraine has also hit the Russian Novoshakhtinsk refinery in Rostov, with images of oil-storage tanks ablaze. This is a clear signal of defiance to Trump who presumably will not be happy at Zelensky’s open insubordination. At the same time, Ansar Allah reportedly struck a major Saudi Aramco facility in Jubail, which means we can expect the energy crisis to continue, with Trump facing increasing pressure on the eve of the midterms which could force him to lash out even harder on Zelensky.

WaPo reports that a new “peace agreement” is being prepared by the incompetent duo of Kushner and Witkoff which is nothing but more of the same:

The “first pillar” gives much reassurance:

The package would have four basic components, according to the U.S. official. The message to Putin would be: Don’t just end the war with Ukraine. Make an economic and security deal with Europe that would restore stability to the region after an upward spiral of escalation.

Ukraine’s reconstruction would be the first pillar. The World Bank and the investment firm BlackRock want to create a framework for meeting Zelensky’s myriad cash needs — for rebuilding the devastated areas of the country, providing benefits to families of dead and wounded soldiers, and restoring a shattered economy.

The remaining pillars are so laughable the author himself can barely present them without snide interjection: Article 5-like guarantees for Ukraine, economic “integration” of both Russia and Ukraine into Europe, and freezing of the conflict on the current lines. The latter is obviously unacceptable to both Russia and Ukraine.

Let’s be honest, the only reason these absurd peace plans are even being conjured up is for Trump to pretend at some semblance of initiative, so he can deflect some of the critics’ heat when asked why he still hasn’t been able to settle the war or bring down energy prices. It’s his way of baiting the press asymptotically along with neverending peace promises that leave a ceasefire perpetually just days away.

In short: it is nothing more than cope and political theater, of the supremely embarrassing variety.

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