Many new facts are coming to the surface in the denouement phase of the Iran-Israeli conflict. One has to do with the damage that Israel actually incurred, which caused it to so swiftly seek an out from the slugfest:
The $3B quoted above does not take into account actual missile and military expenditures, but strictly damage caused. In the same article, infamous Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich actually named the war cost’s highest ceiling at $12B:
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich told a press conference the total cost of war could be as high as $12 billion, while Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron put the figure at about half that when speaking to Bloomberg TV on Wednesday. Whatever the final figure, that presents a challenge to an economy already strained by 20 months of wider conflict.
This is only from a 12-day span—imagine if this had dragged out to months, or even a year. Recall we were told the war was costing $200-300M per day just in military expenditures, if you add the above higher figure of $12B in non-military damage, total they represent $1.3B per day, at the highest end. Israel’s defense budget is around $45B, which means the war would eat the entire budget in a mere month, and the entire country’s GDP in a year and change.
“This is the greatest challenge we’ve faced — there has never been this amount of damage in Israel’s history,” Shay Aharonovich, the director general of Israel’s Tax Authority who’s in charge of paying out compensation, told reporters.
The article further confirms that Israel was almost entirely economically shut-down during the duration of the war, as we had reported last time:
During the 12-day campaign, the Israeli economy was almost completely shut down, with schools and businesses closed barring those designated essential. The government will pay compensation to businesses, estimated by the Finance Ministry at as much as 5 billion shekels.
It further admits Israel’s largest oil refinery in Haifa was ‘badly damaged’, and that the brief war against Iran cost far more than both conflicts against Hamas and Hezbollah from October 2023 onward—which is shocking when you think about it.
In short, Iran did massively more damage than we were led to believe.
Let’s not forget the US’ expenditures:
US BURNED 15-20% of its THAAD missile interceptors to defend Israel in conflict with Iran — Newsweek
Cost taxpayers an ‘unprecedented’ $800+ MILLION
Raviv Drucker from Israeli Channel 13 says that Israeli authorities hid a lot of big hits on strategic sites, concealing ‘just how accurate’ Iranian strikes were:
Further, even more photographic proof continues to emerge of Iran’s downing of Israeli heavy UCAV drones, like the Heron, Hermes, and Eitan series. Several new photos and videos showed previously unseen drones shot down and being recovered by Iranians, with one list put together claiming at least 7 confirmed heavy UCAVs:
Israeli defense minister Katz likewise admitted Israel wanted to kill Khamenei but simply could not get to him:
Chalk that up to another failed objective.
In fact, some reports now indicate up to four of the Iranian generals claimed as ‘killed’ have resurfaced unharmed, though—besides Ismail Qaani—as of this writing it remains unverified:
The hits on Iran’s nuclear sites are likewise fraught with questionable details. For instance, the chairman of US Joint Chiefs of Staff claimed the B-2 pilots saw the “brightest explosion” ever seen, while at the same time striking the narrative—as per Hegseth—that all bombs perfectly entered the same one hole, and burrowed extremely deep underground. Where, then, did this ‘bright flash’ come from?
U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan "Razin" Caine:
In the days preceding the Fordow attacks, Iranians tried to cover the shafts with concrete.
The pilot who hit Fordow told me it was the brightest explosion he’d ever seen.
All six weapons at each vent at Fordow went exactly where they were intended to go.
Fordow is mere miles from Tehran, a metropolitan area of nearly 20 million people, yet not a single video or eyewitness account exists of “the brightest explosion ever seen”—why is that?
In fact, a coverup hid that one of the B-2s taking part in the operation “broke down” on the way to the Middle East and had to make an emergency landing in Hawaii, where it was stranded out in the open in the public Honolulu International Airport:
June 21, 2025: A B-2 (callsign MYTEE 14, serial 88-0332) diverted to Honolulu after declaring an emergency, as noted in recent sources.
Some point to the fact that certain Iranian officials have now “admitted” that the strikes were successful. But let’s briefly break this down: figures like FM Araghchi and spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said that ‘serious damage’ was suffered. However, recall the following:
1. The US launched a large Tomahawk missile strike on the surface components of the sites.
2. Other sites not as deeply fortified as Fordow were hit, such as Natanz, which some sources claim was ‘destroyed’ below ground.
This means that Iranian officials can play along with the game and claim ‘serious damage’ was done as a generality, while concealing the fact that Fordow’s underground structures may have remained completely untouched.
Also, it should be noted that Ayatollah Khamenei himself contradicted his foreign ministry, stating that no serious damage was done:
But what’s more is that there seemed to have been a hidden quid-pro-quo wherein Iran allowed US its ‘show strike’ while US in turn removed the sanctions against Iran’s oil trade, as admitted to by Steve Witkoff.
The action hints at a grander, more far-reaching plan hatched out behind the scenes, particularly given that reports now claim that Trump is even discussing a $30B investment package to develop Iran’s civilian nuclear program:
The Trump administration is discussing offering Iran $30 billion in foreign-backed investment to develop a civilian nuclear energy program and also easing sanctions and unfreezing restricted Iranian funds. If Iran agrees to cease all uranium enrichment.
That said, Trump immediately denied the above report:
But other rumors persist of an even grander Abraham Accords expansion that would tie things together into an ending to the Gaza war as well, and a new vision for Palestine’s future:
🧩The media publishes the "Trump-Netanyahu two-state vision: ending the war in Gaza and expanding the Abraham Accords".
Trump and Netanyahu have decided the fate of the Gaza Strip.
🔹The fighting in the Gaza Strip will end within two weeks. According to the plan, control of the strip will be transferred to four Arab states (including Egypt and the UAE), which will replace Hamas. The remaining Hamas leaders will be expelled to other countries, and all hostages will be released;
🔹A number of countries around the world will accept residents of the Gaza Strip who wish to emigrate.
🔹The expansion of the Abraham Accords involves the establishment of official relations between Israel and countries such as Syria, Saudi Arabia, and other Arab and Muslim states.
🔹Israel will express its readiness for a future two-state solution to the Palestinian conflict, subject to reforms in the Palestinian Authority.
🔹The United States will recognize the limited extent of Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria."
In short, Trump is trying to use the momentum of his ‘stupendous victory’ in Iran to quickly cinch up the entire Middle East, and finally solve the Gaza equation once and for all. One gets the feeling things won’t go as smoothly as he’d like, particularly now that Israel has vowed to “enforce” its nuclear restrictions on Iran, and Iran itself has voted to boot the licentious IAEA:
Iran Breaks With Russia?
Let’s talk about the final elephant in the room.
There is now a tsunami of unsourced “reports” that Iran is somehow ‘fed up’ with Russia’s lack of support, and is turning to China instead for its defense needs.
It all started when some fake accounts pretending to be connected to the IRGC posted a quote claiming that Iran is watching which of its ‘friends’ are standing beside it. This was interspersed with photos of Iranian defense officials climbing into Chinese J-10 fighters as ‘proof’ Iran has fully turned to China, with claims that Iran was impressed with Chinese weapons in Pakistani hands during the brief India-Pakistan flare up weeks ago.
One of the completely unsourced claims:
First outcomes of Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh’s visit to China: Iran is considering the purchase of Chinese Chengdu J-10CE fighter jets.
Following the Pakistani J-10CE fighters’ achievement of air superiority over Indian Rafale jets — thanks to long-range PL-15 air-to-air missiles and KLJ-7A AESA radars — these "4++ generation" Chinese fighters are now Tehran’s top candidates for rapidly replenishing its outdated and partially destroyed combat fleet.
While deliveries of Russian Su-35S jets equipped with R-37M missiles are ongoing, their pace is expected to be considerably slower. This is due to the Russian Aerospace Forces needing to replenish their own reserves in preparation for a potential direct conflict with NATO.
Moreover, if U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran continue, even such limited deliveries could become highly uncertain. Iran urgently needs direct military support from its allies.
In reality, Iran is merely attending the customary SCO conference in China, along with Russia and many others, so it’s only natural that Chinese hardware is being examined. There is no further credible evidence to back the confected claims above.
On the other hand, that does not mean there’s not any truth to them, or that they won’t be proven true in the future—simply that, as of this moment, there is no credible source backing these claims.
We have recently seen Putin describing how Russia tried to sign a more integrated defense pact with Iran, and that it was Iran which turned it down. Rumors claim it was Pezeshkian who wanted Iran to have ‘more options’, as he felt signing a strong defense pact with Russia would hurt his negotiations with the US. There is no real credible proof for this claim, either, but it is at least plausible.
Iran may have reason to not fully trust Russia with such a pact—after all, many believe Russia short-changed Iran for years with the lackluster delivery failures of key systems like S-400s and Su-35s, which other countries like Turkey and Algeria, respectively, received. It is certainly plausible that Russia was trying to maintain a very delicate balance in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, and did not want to appear overly hostile in loading up Iran with the most powerful deterrence-breaking systems. This was at a time when Russia’s position in Syria was quite fragile, as it was caught between local ‘great powers’ which could leverage far more resources around Russia’s diminutive Latakia forward base.
Now people have gone above and beyond in tying Putin’s latest statements into an overarching conspiracy theory. Yes, Putin said Israel is a Russian-speaking nation—which it is, as Russian is essentially the third unofficial language after Hebrew and Arabic. Russian is heard widely in Tel Aviv, with Russian storefronts everywhere. Putin is merely being pragmatic and a realist, as always—just as in the case of Donbass. It doesn’t mean he’s choosing Israel over Iran, or that he’s a “crypto-Jew” or whatever other conspiracies people have been latching onto.
The fact is, Israel has a vast interconnectivity with Russia, as families travel back and forth between the two, and many share relatives between the two countries. Any pragmatic leader would just as readily recognize and accept these facts, and likewise feel some sense of duty to these familial ties.
For the record, Putin fully supports the establishment of an independent Palestinian state—so there is no ambiguity there; I doubt that would be the case if he was some crypto-Zionist, as some people believe.
For the record, no one actually knows the full reasons for why Russia has had such a spotty track record with weapons deliveries to Iran. There’s various theories and rumors, including those about Iran’s own self-defeating pride and stinginess when it comes to paying, as well as cut-throat pricing of their own wares. For instance, there had long been rumors that Iran charged Russia exorbitantly for their Shahed drones, until Russia was finally able to localize them.
And why, exactly, should Russia care if Iran did end up turning to China for technology? It’s a win-win for Russia either way. Firstly, at the moment Russia is in a high-intensity slug match that has huge demands for national inventory—Russia needs virtually everything it produces. If China wants to take over for once, and load Iran up, it’s a big win for the entire resistance sphere—why would Russia complain? It’s not like Russian defense companies would be losing out on contracts—they can barely even produce enough to fill their own state contracts at the moment.
In short: don’t believe everything you hear, or read. The vast majority of reporting on this particular issue is fake, and there is nothing truly known yet about which direction Iran is actually going or why. Officially speaking, Russia is still set to deliver Su-35s to Iran ‘by the end of the year’.
Not to mention that at the SCO, Iranian defense ministers also met with their Pakistani counterparts as well:
One thing is for certain, Iran needs to speed up its window shopping and begin rebuilding its national radar grid in preparation for the next round, because it’s only a matter of time before Israel begins chafing for another diversion. Latest ‘secret’ reports indicate that the Gaza war is not going well at all. Israel’s largest daily paper, Yedioth Ahronoth, claims that multiple IDF brigades have been withdrawn due to the war with Iran, and that they are now on the ‘defensive’ rather than offensive in Gaza:
Palestinian resistance groups have become stronger thanks to Iran’s attacks In an article by Yedioth Ahronoth, it admits that Israeli forces have been weakened in the Gaza Strip and currently are on the defense rather than offense.
It says the Palestinian resistance are taking back momentum, especially in Khan Younis, as many Israeli brigades have been withdrawn from the Strip due to Iran’s attacks. Gaza has regained strategic focus after Iran’s attacks, says the article.
This is after another surge of IDF casualties, which saw 7 soldiers killed yesterday when a Hamas fighter rigged their APC with explosives, captured in a spectacular video.
Another Israeli channel reports ministerial urgency to tie the Iran case into a broader deal and end the Gaza bloodletting:
Israeli Channel 12 reports on government ministers: - What we did in Gaza may have had theoretical potential but did not achieve results - We must do something different on the military level or seek to end the war with a single deal
Normally, any country suffering such setbacks on every front would pack things in. But with the vast funding from the US and the West that Israel luxuriates in, the accelerating losses can only forebode another disastrous turn against Iran in the future, with the hopes of drawing out a much larger conflict that could further conceal Israel and Netanyahu’s dire straits.
As a last tragicomic note, the exchange between Trump and Iran’s Araghchi was telling and priceless:
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